Bush’s Debate Problem

You knew that even the Bush-campaign thought their guy had a bad debate when Danny Diaz (the campaign manager) got into a heated argument over speaking time with CNBC before the debate even had finished. Now, let us concede the point that the Republican nomination “isn’t going to be won and lost by debates in October.” That’s fair. But here at DebateWatch we would argue that you can, in fact, lose it. Over the course of the debates, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has continued to impress both pundits and voters by turning in good debate performances. As we noted last night, some candidates are lucky to get one good sound bite out of a debate. Senator Rubio consistently receives applause lines on a multitude of issues. It is unlikely that the Florida Senator would be spoken of as a front-runner and favorite at this stage of the primary cycle without his debate performances.

Unlike Senator Rubio, former Governor Bush is losing steam with each passing debate. In the first debate I thought that he turned in an okay performance. It wasn’t the best I have ever seen, but he was holding steady. In the second debate he performed slightly worse. Last night in Boulder, The former governor continued to crater. The worst moment for Governor Bush came in the Sunshine State showdown when he attempted to attack Senator Rubio over his voting record – and failed miserably. After the debate, CNN’s Dana Bash flatly asked Bush if he is “frustrated.” (to which the candidate of course answered that he isn’t. DebateWatch remains skeptical about that claim)

The problem for Governor Bush is not that he is dumb or lacks knowledge about the issues. In fact, an argument could be made that he is probably the most well-read policy wonk on stage with great knowledge about many different subjects. Whether we are discussing health care, education, or tax policy, Bush is likely to have thought through the issues and have a coherent answer ready.

Unfortunately for Governor Bush, presidential debates are not just about being well-read. It helps, certainly, but even more important is to be able to perform once you are up on the stage. Candidates like Senators Rubio and Cruz are able to take a question from the moderators and deliver a passionate reply that sounds genuine and captures the imagination of the audience. They sound inspiring regardless of whether you agree with their policy positions or not. Governor Bush, on the other hand, appears to lack this ability. In sit-down interviews, his performance is generally much better than on stage where he only has a few seconds to make his case on complicated issues. When he does try to move out of his comfort zone, for example by attacking other candidates, it mostly comes across as a bull in a china shop. He does more damage than good. The Bush campaign, and the candidate himself, is probably realizing that this is the case and that is a major part of the reason why Mr. Diaz took CNBC to task about the limited amount of speaking time his candidate received.

Not everyone has to be an excellent performer. Ben Carson does not deliver rhetorically brilliant answers when he is up on the stage. But unlike Governor Bush, Mr. Carson comes across to the Republican electorate as genuine and caring. Again, regardless of what one might think about Mr. Carson’s policy proposals (or lack thereof), it is hard to not like the guy and want him to come brighten up your Thanksgiving dinner. The same cannot, unfortunately for his campaign, be said about Governor Bush right now.

Who Won the CNBC Republican Debate, Part II: The Main Event

Nabisco, peanuts, Krispy Kremes, pie in the sky, brownies, and hamburger were all name-checked by the candidates on the main stage. Maybe they had the munchies?

CNBC fielded the same batch of anchors for the primetime debate as they had for the undercard, and Becky Quick was audibly hoarse by the end of the ordeal. Questions were about as tough as those from previous Republican roundups, but moderation was unusually capricious and adversarial. That didn’t seem to bother most of the candidates, who were spoiling for a fight anyway after recent upheavals in the primary race – which made this either the most or least fun debate to watch, depending on how you feel about snide comments.

After two hours on the rhetorical battlefield, who has gained ground and who has lost it? DebateWatch breaks it down for you, ranking the candidates’ performances – and, as always, we, like Drake, start from the bottom…

10. Kentucky Senator RAND PAUL

Rand Paul is officially a marginalized candidate. After expressing (understandable) confusion over the rules for rebuttals and why he hadn’t been awarded one in the central doldrums of the debate, Becky Quick retorted “It’s at the moderator’s discretion,” and moved on to another candidate. The crowd guffawed.

The junior senator from the Bluegrass State did eventually get his desired follow-up, but to little effect. One might have thought that, energized by his “dumbass livestream” and favored by the economic focus of the debate, Paul might have done well in this contest. Unfortunately, the things that make Rand Paul “a different kind of Republican” are mostly not economic issues. Without his iconoclastic foreign policy to trot out, and with the only marijuana question going to John Kasich, Paul quickly faded into the background and did not return.

9. Former Florida Governor JEB BUSH

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Jeb Bush’s collapse in the polls was noteworthy enough that moderator John Harwood even pointed out during the debate that the former Sunshine State governor was standing further from center stage tonight than in Simi Valley.

Bush learned his lesson from the CNN debate and refrained from throwing punches at Trump this time around – and his performance was better for it. But being dealt the second-smallest chunk of speaking time (only 24 seconds more than Rand Paul) and tying for the fewest direct questions took its toll. Bush hawked his gubernatorial record and his tax plan but lost face in an exchange with Marco Rubio over the latter’s Senate voting record (not a bad strategy, but Rubio was prepared). Donors pushing the panic button over Bush’s campaign struggles found no succor in his appearance tonight in Boulder.

8. Ohio Governor JOHN KASICH

It seems no Republican has changed as much from the first debate to the third as John Kasich. In Cleveland – his backyard – the Buckeye State governor was relaxed, comfortable, and easygoing. After announcing that he was sick and tired of the state of the GOP primary race, he entered the Coors Event Center literally vibrating with anger. Happy-go-lucky John had been replaced by someone who was either really mad or really had to pee.

Kasich exploded on command early in the debate, railing against what he considered the “fantasy” of Trump’s and Carson’s economic plans. Carson, predictably, held off counterattacking, but Trump returned fire by blasting Kasich as an old Lehman Brothers crony and attributing Ohio’s economic fortune to fracking rather than gubernatorial leadership. Kasich retreated to his talking points about Ohio from then on, and finished with a bafflingly irrelevant closing statement. In 2012, Newt Gingrich began his campaign with joy and resorted to acrimony out of frustration; to this point, Kasich seems to be following a similar trajectory.

7. Former Arkansas Governor MIKE HUCKABEE

Mike Huckabee wore a Trump tie to the debate tonight (candidates at neighboring podiums asked him to check whether it was made in China or Mexico). That’s pretty much all you need to know about the self-appointed troll of the GOP field, who seems to delight in doing exactly what you don’t expect him to do every chance he gets.

DebateWatch has noted previously that the former Natural State governor tends to not give a particular reason why he – as opposed to another Republican – should be president. He finally did give one to CNBC: he has won elections against “the Clinton machine” before. The problem is that this really isn’t a very compelling reason on which to build a campaign. The debate’s economic focus accentuated Huckabee’s unflattering populist side, and his only truly unique proposal was to “declare a war” on the four diseases that account for the largest chunk of American healthcare expenses. DebateWatch wishes the Reverend the best of luck on his book tour of a campaign, but also concedes that he will need it.

6. New York real estate tycoon DONALD TRUMP

Someone clever (perhaps even Donald Trump) sagely advised Donald Trump not to sic himself on Ben Carson in Boulder. For whatever reason, the business mogul heeded that advice, and was relatively subdued throughout the debate after two contests where he pulled no punches.

DebateWatch remains amazed that Trump is still getting away with his incredibly nonspecific proposals for growing the economy and dealing with foreign trade partners. Yet we cannot deny that he handled himself rather well on the debate stage. Of course, that’s not to say that his performance was any less bizarre than his earlier outings: he essentially stopped the debate to issue a vague and cryptic warning about the spectre of super PACs, and used his closing statement to brag about bullying CNBC into truncating the debate to two hours (which moderator John Harwood unconvincingly denied). Trump may be down to Carson in some polls, but at least on the debate stage he is not running out of steam.

5. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO CARLY FIORINA

It was only a matter of time before Carly Fiorina broke her debate winning streak (according to DebateWatch’s scorecards). As far as “defeats” go, however, this wasn’t a particularly devastating one. Fiorina had the most speaking time of any candidate (10 minutes, 32 seconds), much of which she earned through calculated interruptions.

Challenged again on her record with HP, Fiorina went several rounds with Becky Quick and came out ahead. Much of her rhetoric was recycled from previous debate appearances (which were themselves largely cut-and-pasted from her stump speeches), and she harped perhaps too much on how problems had been talked about for years but never solved. Fiorina didn’t do anything to drive down her poll numbers on the debate stage, but her support has tended to wane between debates, and the CNBC contest might not bring her the boost she usually gets from primetime TV.

(N.B.: DebateWatch noted a striking absence of Fiorina’s “the political class has failed you” theme tonight. If she were in fact angling for the veepstakes – which she denies – this would be a smart move to make her more compatible with a potential running mate.)

4. New Jersey Governor CHRIS CHRISTIE

DebateWatch cannot speak knowledgeably about all the candidates’ levels of debate prep, but we do know that Chris Christie is the only candidate who regularly subjects himself to unrehearsed radio interviews with questions from constituents. He is built for the uncertainty of the debate environment, and proved it again tonight in Boulder.

Facing interruptions from a moderator, Christie sighed, “John, do you want me to answer or do you want to answer? Because, I’ve got to tell you the truth, even in New Jersey what you’re doing is called rude.” After the debate turned to the legality of daily fantasy sports, the Garden State governor exploded at the triviality of the topic. In between, he attacked presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and delivered more of his trademark straight talk directly to the American people (whom he disconcertingly stared down through the camera lens). If debates were all that mattered, Christie would have been among the front-runners long ago; to the extent that they matter, he has a shot.

3. Retired neurosurgeon BEN CARSON

The number one question going into the CNBC debates was how insurgent neurosurgeon Ben Carson would handle the spotlight. DebateWatch admits to having low expectations for someone whose slow, deliberate speaking style seemed more suited to speechifying than debating.

Carson’s coolness under pressure was the surprise of the night. Although he had to look at his notes on at least one occasion when talking numbers, the GOP field’s most unlikely outsider was on point when correcting the moderators about his tithe-based tax plan (which, though biblically inspired, was not based on a similar 10% rate) and admonishing them for assuming that his traditional view of marriage was incompatible with supporting equal constitutional protections for all Americans regardless of sexual orientation (for which the audience applauded him). As a candidate, Carson leaves many questions unanswered. As a debater, he has proven a quick study.

2. Florida Senator MARCO RUBIO

Marco Rubio scurried to the front of the pack early on in the contest. After deftly dismissing Carl Quintanilla’s question about his lackluster voting record in the Senate, Rubio found his fellow Sunshine Stater Jeb Bush piling on to accuse him of not doing his job. The Florida senator’s response was picture-perfect: “I don’t remember you ever complaining about John McCain’s vote record. The only reason why you’re doing it now is because we’re running for the same position, and someone has convinced you that attacking me is going to help you.” The crowd cheered, and Rubio was off and running.

Most candidates are lucky to get one good sound bite out of a debate. Rubio – the only candidate other than Fiorina to clear ten minutes in speaking time – had enough applause lines for a whole ad campaign. He mercilessly derided the mainstream media as “the Democrats’ ultimate super PAC” for propping up Hillary Clinton after her Benghazi hearing. Smart money is on Rubio for the GOP nomination once the fourteen-candidate frenzy dies down, but the freshman Floridian senator is happily – and effectively – taking part in the frenzy while it lasts.

1. Texas Senator TED CRUZ

Newt Gingrich, the mantle has passed. Republicans have a new media gadfly, and his name is Rafael Edward Cruz. Dismayed at the initial round of questioning, Cruz ditched his first proper question to opine “This is not a cage match. And, you look at the questions – ‘Donald Trump, are you a comic-book villain?’ ‘Ben Carson, can you do math?’ ‘John Kasich, will you insult two people over here?’ ‘Marco Rubio, why don’t you resign?’ ‘Jeb Bush, why have your numbers fallen?‘”

From then on, it was open season on the moderators, and candidate after candidate followed Cruz’s example. But the Lone Star State’s junior senator was fit as a fiddle to argue policy as well, garroting the Obama administration for presiding over an economy whose downs disproportionately hurt working women (after which Fiorina seemed disappointed that one of her talking points had been preempted). Cruz has flown below the radar in the Republican primary for a long time, but he used the Coors Events Center to thunderously announce his presence in the race – and DebateWatch declares Ted Cruz the winner of the CNBC Boulder Republican Primetime debate.

Who Won the CNBC Republican Debate, Part I: The Undercard

Fight night kicked off in Boulder, Colorado, with the “Who’s Who” of CNBC personalities posing questions to the “Who’s That?” of the Republican primary field.

Four candidates had their third shot at breaking into the top tier of the race and a slate full of economic questions with which to do it. But the moderators would not be as relenting as CNN’s Jake Tapper or FoxNews’s Bill Hemmer and Martha McCallum, and dodgers would frequently be asked to get back to the point.

Who rose to the occasion, and who fell on their faces? DebateWatch ranks all four below, from worst to first by performance:

4. Former New York Governor GEORGE PATAKI

George Pataki’s campaign must have been thanking their lucky stars that the debate would be shifting to the economy. Finally, a chance for the former governor of the Empire State to sell his record of tax reduction and job growth without being tempted to mention 9/11 or remind Republican voters how out of step he is with them on social policy.

For most of the night, Pataki flourished better than he had at both prior debates, rattling off the most detailed and thought-out energy policy DebateWatch has heard from any candidate. He even got in a dig at Graham and Santorum for bickering like Washington insiders. Yet in his closing statement, Pataki snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, lampshading the fact that his stance on social issues contradicts the Republican orthodoxy. Pataki hasn’t yet figured out what Jim Webb realized at the first Democratic debate: the party that once had room for you has left you behind, and its primary electorate isn’t particularly keen on coming back for you. Pataki falls back to the bottom on an unforced error.

3. Former Pennsylvania Senator RICK SANTORUM

Knowing we had to put together this scorecard, DebateWatch kept a legal pad at hand to jot down interesting things the candidates said. When we looked down at our notes, we had comments on Graham, Jindal, and Pataki, but not a single thing written down for Rick Santorum.

The fact is that the former Keystone State senator gave a very milquetoast performance. He came back to his “20/20 Clear Vision” tax plan throughout the night, but seemed to be caught off guard question after question, even when the topics were things he should have prepped. There was no great takeaway moment; nothing to get traction in the news cycle or anchor a TV ad. When gap-toothed guest moderator Rick Santelli looks and sounds like the more electable Rick S. in the room, it’s time for Santorum to seriously reconsider his messaging.

2. South Carolina Senator LINDSEY GRAHAM

Hot on the heels of a raucous comedic performance at the Reagan Library, Lindsey Graham had the right mix of old favorites and new material to keep the crowd chuckling. Ironically for someone who copiously criticizes Hillary Clinton, the most likely viral moment from the Palmetto State senator’s routine was a dig at Bernie Sanders, who, according to Graham, “went to the Soviet Union on his honeymoon and I don’t think he ever came back.”

Despite clearly relishing his role as the GOP’s funnyman, Graham was hurt by the economic line of questioning from CNBC’s moderators. He repeatedly attempted to wrest the discussion back to national security – his bread and butter – but when forced to talk economic policy Graham was long on platitudes but short on proposals. Graham may still be able to leave an audience in stitches, but he is out of his element when the debate shifts from guns to butter.

1. Louisiana Governor BOBBY JINDAL

Fast Bobby knew he was running out of time, with undercard debates in danger of extinction. He responded by throwing himself vigorously into a presentation and defense of his record as governor of the Pelican State. Jindal wasn’t the only governor on stage, but with Pataki uninterested in hawking his résumé he certainly sounded like he was.

Jindal faced pointed barbs from several moderators on Louisiana’s economic well-being throughout the night, but he had an answer or an artful dodge for every single one. He seamlessly wove slogans and sound bites into hard policy facts from his own state and the nation, and never once seemed to be tripped up by a surprise question or an errant answer. What profit an kids’ table victory will be to him we can only speculate, but DebateWatch decleares Bobby Jindal the winner of the CNBC Undercard Republican debate.

What to Watch for at the CNBC Boulder Debates

WHEN: Wednesday, October 28, 6:00 PM Undercard, 8:00 PM Main Event (EDT)

WHERE: Coors Events Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

TV: CNBC

Three debates in, and the combined 2016 primary field is down four candidates. The case can be made (and DebateWatch has certainly attempted to make it) that the debates have been substantially, if not solely, responsible for those exits. Rick Perry bet big with TV buys to make the main stage and lost, Scott Walker’s donors lost faith after his two “aggressively normal” performances, and Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee quickly bowed out after flopping in Las Vegas.

After several news cycles hyping and unpacking the Clinton-Sanders showdown at the Wynn, the focus again shifts to the Republican primary. The Consumer News and Business Channel will feature moderation from Carl Quintanilla (“Squawk on the Street”, “Squawk Alley”), Becky Quick (“Squawk Box”), and John Harwood, who does not co-anchor any squawk-themed television shows to the best of DebateWatch’s knowledge. The undercard and primetime debates will feature the same candidates respectively as they did on the CNN debate, sans Walker.

Will a marginal break through? Will a giant be felled? Will the altitude or local flora sap the candidates’ concentration? Here are three things to bear in mind when the candidates convene at Coors:

1. The Undercard Is a Game of Chicken

At first, it wasn’t clear that CNBC would even have a supplemental debate for candidates who couldn’t crack the top tier. But CNBC couldn’t say no to Lindsey Graham’s must-see TV, although the RNC is undoubtedly getting tired of humoring these long-shot candidates. No one has escaped debate purtagory since Carly Fiorina, the marginals still haven’t caught on in the polls, and their television time is running out. Does that mean Wednesday’s undercard is make-or-break?

DebateWatch doesn’t think so. The final four second-tier debaters are all betting the farm on one of the first two primary states – Jindal and Santorum on Iowa, Graham and Pataki on New Hampshire. All four rightly regard these states as their Alamos – the last and best (though not very good) chance they have of becoming a force to be reckoned with in 2016. Their campaigns are built around competing in these elections, so they are unlikely to run out of money before then. That means that almost nothing can convince them to end their presidential runs short of losing the states to which they’ve pinned their hopes. Don’t expect any of the undercard participants to be phased, even if they tank on stage.

2. It’s (Finally) the Economy, Stupid

After two debates where foreign policy and social issues dominated the agenda, CNBC has pledged to focus its conversation on the economy. This shift will bring some candidates into their comfort zone and others out of theirs. Contenders for whom economic issues are more in their wheelhouse include Bush, Carson, Fiorina, and Kasich; those that harp on non-economic issues in their stump speeches (such as Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul) will be challenged by the moderators to pivot and prove their competence in this area.

Some have argued that economics questions will tilt the debate in Trump’s favor, given his background as a business mogul. DebateWatch is unconvinced. Trump’s campaign rests primarily on foreign policy and immigration, where his issue stances are on the same side of the scale as most Republicans, though occasionally more extreme. On taxes and healthcare, his policy proposals look more like Democratic ones than Republican ones, giving the moderators plenty of opportunities to pit Trump against rivals who are closer than him to the median Republican voter.

3. Ben There, Don That

At the last Republican debate in Simi Valley, Ben Carson passed up an opportunity to nail Donald Trump as an anti-vaxxer, and the two shook hands on stage. Trump was more focused on assailing Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, who at the time posed a greater threat to his campaign. Flash forward to today: Carson is a close second to Trump nationwide (even beating him in a CBS/New York Times poll), a not-as-close second in New Hampshire, and a clear favorite in Iowa.

Carson and Trump will stand at adjacent central podia once again on Wednesday night, and most everyone expects a confrontation this time around. It’s worth mentioning that the doctor and businessman have diametrically opposed styles, which should make it an asymmetric showdown. Trump is blunt and unencumbered by self-censoring, beloved for telling it like (he thinks) it is. Carson is quiet and reserved, loath to sling mud. Trump got the best of Bush in previous debates by dragging the ex-governor down to his level and beating him with experience, but Carson seems less likely to take the bait. Will Trump trample over an insurgent candidate who puts up no resistance, or will his bravado backfire when Carson keeps his cool? There’s only one way to find out for sure.

Candidates Threaten to Opt Out of the GOP CNBC Debate

Even when they are not on the debate stage, the Republican primary debates are causing headlines. This time, there appears to be significant disagreement between the RNC/CNBC and the top two polling Republican candidates.

In a public letter sent to Mr. Matthew Cuddy of the CNBC’s Washington Bureau, Mr. Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson are threatening to opt out of the debate hosted by CNBC. At the heart of the dispute between the two sides we find a disagreement over the length of the debate as well whether opening and closing statements should be included. Essentially, the two campaigns appear to be presenting CNBC with an ultimatum:

To be clear, neither of our campaigns agreed to either the length you propose or your ban opening or closing statements. In fact, neither of our campaigns were even consulted. Neither of those conditions are acceptable. Neither Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson will participate in your debate if it is longer than 120 minutes including commercials and does not include opening and closing statements.

On Twitter, Mr. Trump reveals part of the reason for his stance on this matter, when he said that the CNBC is trying to push the GOP around and get more air time so that they can sell more commercials. Mr. Trump also described the debate terms as “ridiculous” in another tweet.

Politico also reports on a conference call in which things quickly turned bad. According to Politico’s reporter, both the Cruz and Paul campaigns said, in fairly strong terms, that CNBC should reconsider their stance on opening and closing statements.